Villa were very strong at home last season, taking forty points from nineteen games, losing only once

Aston Villa host Newcastle United at Villa Park on Saturday in the Premier League’s early kick-off, with both sides beginning the new campaign harbouring ambitions of pushing into the top four.

Villa were strong at home last season, taking forty points from nineteen games, losing only once. Their underlying numbers were equally strong, with the second-highest home xPTS (37.48) and excellent penalty-box control, allowing just 5.53 shots in the box per game. Despite that dominance, they had the joint-highest both teams to score rate in the league at 74%, often conceding in matches they controlled. Unai Emery has been tasked with reshaping the squad after key loanees Marco Asensio, Marcus Rashford, and Axel Disasi returned to their parent clubs.

Newcastle arrive off the back of ending a seventy-year domestic trophy drought by lifting the EFL Cup and securing a fifth-place finish. They were the tenth-best away side last season, picking up twenty-eight points, but their shot profile showed they conceded more in dangerous areas than they created, with a -1.06 SiB (shots in the box) differential. Their away xPTS of 29.10 ranked fifth, pointing to good game management and finishing efficiency. Eddie Howe has strengthened with the £55m signing of Anthony Elanga, but speculation surrounds Alexander Isak after forty-four league goals in two seasons, and he will be missing here.

Both clubs enter the campaign with European football ahead with Villa in the Europa League and Newcastle in the Champions League. Villa will look to maintain their home dominance, while Newcastle aim to show they can win on the road against top-half opposition. With both squads undergoing changes, this opener offers an early test of whether their summer work has been enough to close the gap to the league’s elite.

Aston Villa and Newcastle’s recent head-to-head record has been relatively balanced, though with strong home advantages for each side. In the last 10 Premier League meetings, Newcastle have won five, Villa four, with one draw.

Goals have been a frequent feature with eight of those 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, and six saw both teams score. The more one-sided score lines, such as Newcastle’s 5-1 and 4-0 wins or Villa’s 4-1 and 3-0 victories, mean that when either side gets on top, they often win by a margin.

At Villa Park, the hosts have generally had the upper hand. Villa have won four of the last five league meetings on home soil, including the 4-1 success in April 2025 and a 3-0 victory in April 2023. Their only home defeat to Newcastle in that period was a 3-1 loss in January 2024.

These games at Villa Park have also been high-scoring with four of the last five have gone over 2.5 goals, and three have seen both teams to score land.

This pattern points to an open, goal-filled contest when these sides meet, particularly in Birmingham, where Villa’s attacking numbers have translated into consistent results against the Magpies.

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Rowe, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Kamara, Tielemans; Bailey, McGinn, Rogers; Watkins.

Newcastle United (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn, Hall; Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton; Elanga, Gordon, Barnes.