Italy will look to revive their push for World Cup qualification when they host Estonia

Italy will look to revive their push for World Cup qualification when they host Estonia on Friday in a Group I fixture in the 2026 UEFA qualifiers. This match at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo between the Blues and the Blueshirts comes with our prediction of Italy winning with a -3 European handicap.

With three points from two matches (W1, L1), Italy start this round in third position and are three points behind second-placed Israel. Estonia also have three points but have played four matches (W1, L3). Only the top two have a chance to qualify for the finals.

After starting the qualification campaign with a shattering 3-0 defeat away in Norway, Italy bounced back with a 2-0 home win over Moldova in the June qualifiers. That was their first victory after four games without a win (D1, L3) as they look to keep winning here. With former international Gennaro Gattuso taking charge, the Italians need a big win to revive their chances of reaching the finals for the first time since 2014.

Estonia lost three of their four qualifiers in this campaign (W1, L3), and their chances of qualification look remote. Their only win of the campaign came at Moldova (3-2). That came after three consecutive away defeats in the World Cup qualifiers, and that could continue here.

Probable line-ups

• Italy: Donnarumma, Bastoni, Calafiori, Di Lorenzo, Dimarco, Barella, Rovella, Tonali, Frattesi, Raspadori, Retegui
• Estonia: Hein, Schöning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Tamm, Sumets, Shein, Vassiljev, Käit, Anier, Sappinen.

Match facts and head-to-head

• Italy have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 7 World Cup qualifying matches
• Estonia have lost 4 of their last 5 away games in World Cup qualification
• Italy have won each of the last 3 head-to-head meetings by more than one goal.