A huge game in the race for Champions League qualification takes place at the Etihad as Aston Villa travel to face Manchester City. Villa’s win over Newcastle has brought them within one point of City and only two behind Newcastle in third, ahead of Tottenham’s clash with Nottingham Forest.
Manchester City’s home form has been strong, with W10-D3-L2. They have scored in 14 of their 16 home matches but kept just four clean sheets—two of which came against Leicester and Southampton. Against current top-six opponents at home, they have a record of W3-D1-L1. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of their home fixtures, with both teams scoring in 62.5% of them.
Villa’s away form has been inconsistent, with W7-D2-L7. Goals are a common theme in their away matches, with over 2.5 goals landing in 75% of them. Villa have failed to score in only four, but also kept just four clean sheets. Their record away to top-six sides reads W0-D1-L2, conceding at least twice in all three. Their only clean sheet away to a top-half team came in a 3–0 victory at Brighton.
In terms of recent underlying data, Villa are flying. Over the last four matches, they lead the league in both xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio, averaging 1.95 xG per game while conceding just 0.6. City, by comparison, rank sixth and seventh in those same metrics, producing 1.54 xG and conceding 1.02. Villa also top the league in big chance ratio during that spell.
This game promises to be open and attack-minded, with both sides under pressure to secure Champions League football. City have looked dangerous at home recently, scoring five against Crystal Palace and beating Leicester 2–0. Villa enter this game in great form, losing just once in their last 10 across all competitions—that defeat coming away at PSG, which they quickly avenged in the return leg.
Still, Villa’s Premier League away form has been mixed, with only four wins in their last 12 matches. Those came against Southampton, Brighton, Brentford, and Everton, the latter being David Moss’s first match in charge.
Manchester City: Ortega; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Kovacic, De Bruyne; McAtee, Foden, Doku; Marmoush.
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Kamara, Tielemans; Rogers, McGinn, Asensio; Watkins.
