The giants from Santiago Bernabéu are experiencing a prolonged crisis. Things seemed bleak a year ago under Ancelotti, after being knocked out of the Champions League by Arsenal and losing domestically to Barcelona. The situation has not improved—Florentino Pérez is searching for a permanent coach, as Arbeloa, who replaced Xabi Alonso in winter, has clearly struggled. The locker room atmosphere is best illustrated by the altercation between Tchouameni and Valverde.
The team from Bilbao, after winning the cup in 2024, added a Europa League semifinal and fourth place in La Liga last season. However, Valverde has already announced his departure, not without reason. His squad failed to reach the Champions League playoffs. Domestically, a Copa del Rey semifinal is their main achievement. In La Liga, they are fighting to secure at least eighth place. They still have a chance—after losses to Valencia and Espanyol, they managed a draw with Celta.
Madrid’s stars have decent stats: averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per match. Their Basque rivals score an average of 1.11 goals and concede 1.46.
Previous matches: Real Madrid vs Athletic
Real Madrid have won four of the last five ‘El Clasico’ encounters. They only lost once to the Basques in that stretch.
The hosts are clear favorites, but this match holds little significance for either side. We recommend betting on ‘total under 3.5 goals’ (odds – 1.65).
Real Madrid vs Athletic: Key Statistics and Trends
Real Madrid have won two games in a row
54% of Real Madrid matches end with both teams scoring, with an average total of 2.86 goals per match
Athletic are winless in their last three games
51% of Athletic’s matches end with both teams scoring, with an average total of 2.57 goals per match
Real Madrid vs Athletic: Likely Starting Lineups
Real Madrid are expected to play in a 1-4-4-2 formation (possible lineup): Courtois – Mendy, Heysen, Rüdiger, Alexander-Arnold – Tchouameni, Valverde, Díaz, Bellingham – Vinícius Júnior, Mbappé. Éder Militão, Rodrygo, and Güler are certain absentees, while Valverde is questionable.
Athletic are expected to use a 1-4-2-3-1 formation (possible lineup): Simón – Berchiche, Laporte, Álvarez, Gorosabel – Jaureguizar, Rego Mora – Nico Williams, Gómez, Iñaki Williams – Guruzeta. Vivian and Sancet are out of the squad.
